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Monday, May 31, 2010

Post Recession Investment Opportunities in India

" I do not look to jump over 7 foot bars;
I look for 1 foot bars that I can step over".
- Warren Buffet

Most experts agree that recession is over. But what lies ahead for the investors?

Answer to this question depends on whom you ask. although economic forecast for the next 12-18 months vary greatly, they can be reduced to three essential types.

Slow growth caused by tightened credit, as occurred in 1992. Although production levels are normal, it is achieved by less employees. Hence increase in unemployment causes the growth to be slow.

Sharp rebound : Mainly caused by the stimulus funds by the Government and other agencies. This happened in 1970. Now also it is evident that automobile sector has started to expand, just six months after a sharp contraction. Also $850 billion stimulus funds of the US Government alone should enter the market in 2010 . This should add the wind for economy to sail.

Double-Dip Recession : This is the most pessimistic scenario. We may fall back to another recession. Unemployment, huge Government deficit, stingy credit markets and uncertainty in global business scenarios can lead to another contraction as happened in 1982.

(India opened for capital word only after 1990s. We have just seen two downfalls. The other I mentioned here are from the other parts where the capital based economy is in effect.)

Nobody except history repeats, But it is likely that it can borrow characteristics from all three scenarios, or may have its own characteristics. So it is important to look for portfolios that could survive those three types of recovery namely rebound, lightening bolt and Double-Dip. As long as investments portfolios are diversified, it takes a good shape, no matter which ride we take. It is not necessary for us to be accurate in prediction. Clairvoyance is not important but diversification is.

With the previous records it is evident that small-company stocks are better opportunities, they usually fall in the down-time very quickly, and also regain very quickly during an up-time. In short there is high risk and also high rewards.

United Kingdom Trade and investment department (UKTI) made an interesting observation in its report saying that India is top 3rd country to invest, after China and US. it observed that "starting point of success is to take an informed strategic and long term view about where opportunity lies".

Stimulus packages unveiled by Government of India should boost exports. Relaxation on export to gulf countries in the field of food, textiles and construction materials is a welcome news to some 30 million people in that area, as well a great business opportunity for the Indian exporters.

Impact of US visa regulations affects the IT and ITeS companies, still if service oriented companies are coming with products, then it is a good opportunity for investing. The power in infrastructure field including Power sector cannot be ignored. Oil and natural gas is still a lucrative business, FMCG will be regaining its position. Business like inland fisheries, food commodities and hardware items will be on rising.

Service oriented Models in IT like SAAS(software as a service) and Cloud computing, storage solutions is a growth opportunity. Educational and health remain at their positions substantially. Hospitality business is acceptable if the holding capacity is there for long time.

Basic economy of any countries follows a hierarchy like

economy based on tourism
economy based on agriculture
economy based on raw material export
economy based on finished goods export
economy based on inland services.

This period, for India is convergence period where we are moving from economy based on raw material export to finished goods export. Any investments based on technology firms and R & D are worthy.

Statistics suggest that there are only 12 cars in India for every 1000 people. It simply means that automobile industry has a huge potential in spite of the hit by recession. renewable energy research and production is another field. Ultimately the opportunities for investment in India are abundant. But the question to be asked before making any decision is "Does this company makes an essential or non-essential product?"

No decision is right or wrong, only time will show it. But the strategy and environmental scanning makes to make the failures less fatal. As Warren Buffet rightly said " It is only when the tide goes out that you discover who's been swimming naked".

Friday, May 28, 2010

Role of Private Finance Companies in Social Development

"Everymorning I wake up and look through
Forbe's list of richest people.
If my name is not there I will go to work"
- Robert Orben.

Yes, everyman has a dream and one more and another one. And lots of them. These dreams generates aspirations. Man being social animal his aspirations are summed up with his neighbours will become social aspirations.

Social development is a process which results in transformation of social structures in a manner which improves the capacity of society to fulfill its aspirations.

Society develops by consciousness and social consciousness develops by organisations. The structural advances are in the form of new social attitudes, values, behaviours or organisations. Development is a term applied for the "positive" changes which are beneficiary to society.

In development of society the influence of financial firms is tremendous because of their role and magnitude of aid in fulfilling aspirations.

The Society in India is primarily comprised of joint families which are splitting up to nucleus families now a days. Hence we study the influence of finance companies on the three segments of populations, separated by age and their position in the family.

Elderly people are also feeling secured now. thanks to reverse mortgage plans, pension-plans from different firms. Earning members are satisfied because they can save for their old age. They also can build their dream-house. They can have a packaged tour to their place of like. They get a education loan for their kids.( of course beneficiary will repay it.. so no tension!)

Children are happy because their parents can fulfill their wishes. parents can present a bicycle worth of 10k on his/her 10th birthday. The kid gets the best education available around the world, because parents no more worry about finances.

Let us re-examine it based on the income levels.

Private finances have a model for every income groups and assist them in fulfilling their aspirations.

ICICI home-loans has plans for all kinds of peoples of all kinds of income level.

Insurances.. a plethora of plans.. life insurances...! your beloved ones are safe ..even if you are not there any more..! health cover.. make you merry even if you are sick because you are not worrying further about the bills.

Public Transport is still a hell. No problem you can buy your own bike. and have jolly rides on the weekends. You have some more money..? Go for a car loan.. Now you do not need to worry about all that haze and rain, as well your kids are protected from the dust falling in their eyes. (Of course Tatas gave us Nano)

Let us look at the rural areas.. Sundaram finance gives you a loan if a well known person recommends you for one. Sriram chits networked in almost all places. and it is a kind of unconventional investments.. still you gain money (these companies are marking profits consistently since past 10-15 years.

You have a farm and need a tractor? Mahindra finance is answer. crop loans are easy now with nationalised banks or co-operative banks. You do not need to worry about withered crops due to any reason because you have crop insurance at your doorsteps now. But no body supports you in the market, you are at the mercy of brokers. (but they are not financiers. But entrepreneurs.!) wanna grow a commercial crop? You just need to touch base with the right person in the bank!

If you are an entrepreneur, there are many plans and easily available loans, sometime subsidies too.. This easily available finance has reduced the stress of human relations and hence the social bonding is comparatively high.

There is another advantage on social development. Postal Bank agents and insurance agents..? What a network they build. and how the small savings are improved and added together to invest in mega-infrastructure projects..? you know that a penny saved is two pennies earned.

Micro-financing firms and self-help groups are gold rush now. For the low-income group it is multi beneficiary. Either a group of people who have come together with common skills will start a cottage industry kind of an outfit. or the savings are used to do micro financing among the group members for their petty needs at one time. Both aspects gives new dimension to life, either creating jobs or fulfilling small needs without major hassle.

It is evident that money is all pervasive and development engine runs on the fuel of money. The private finance companies fuel the development even in social context.

In the end I could not resist mentioning about the credit collection agents and their ways.. ! But John Paul Getty summarised it as follows:

"If you owe the bank $100 it is your problem. and if you owe the bank $100 million, that's certainly banks problem"

Monday, May 10, 2010

server migration -Tips and notes

April 15th 7:04
ssh into the computer
apt-get install apache2
apt-get install mysql-server-5.0
apt-get install php5
apt-get install php5-mysql
--

April 16th 2:58

apt-get update
apt-get upgrade
wget http://downloads.sourceforge.net/project/typo3/TYPO3%20Source%20and%20Dummy/TYPO3%204.3.3/typo3_src-4.3.3.tar.gz?use_mirror=space

wget http://downloads.sourceforge.net/project/typo3/TYPO3%20Source%20and%20Dummy/TYPO3%204.3.3/typo3_src%2Bdummy-4.3.3.zip?use_mirror=nchc

apt-get install zip
apt-get install imagemagick
unzip typo3+dummy....zip

April 27th

mv typo3_dumm.. yourname
cd prion/typo3conf

admin/adminpass

chown -R www-data:www-data typo3temp/
chown -R www-data:www-data typo3conf
chown -R www-data:www-data uploads
chown -R www-data:www-data fileadmin
chown -R www-data:www-data typo3/ext/

### for suhosin patch for php5
apt-get install php5-suhosin
/etc/init.d/apache2 restart

apt-get install php5-gd

vim /etc/php5/apache2/php.ini
vim /etc/php5/conf.d/suhosin.ini
/etc/init.d/apache2 restart


# not needed below
apt-get install dpkg-dev build-essential
cd /usr/src
apt-get source php5
wget http://www.hardened-php.net/hardened-php-signature-key.asc
gpg --import < hardened-php-signature-key.asc
wget http://www.hardened-php.net/suhosin/_media/suhosin-patch-5.2.0-0.9.6.2.patch.gz
gunzip suhosin-patch-5.2.0-0.9.6.2.patch.gz
cd php5-5.2.0
patch -p 1 -i ../suhosin-patch-5.2.0-0.9.6.2.patch
dpkg-buildpackage
### Till here


May 10th

Generating SSL
http://www.akadia.com/services/ssh_test_certificate.html

openssl genrsa -des3 -out server.key 1024
************

openssl req -new -key server.key -out server.csr


cp server.key server.key.org
cp server.key server.key.orig

openssl rsa -in server.key.org -out server.key

mkdir /etc/apache2/ssl
cp server.crt /etc/apache2/ssl/
cp server.key /etc/apache2/ssl/

a2enmod rewrite
a2enmod ssl

add the following lines in virtual host entry

RewriteEngine on
RewriteCond %{SERVER_PORT} ^80$
RewriteRule ^(.*)$ https://your.domain.com$1 [L,R]
RewriteLog "/var/log/apache2/rewrite.log"
RewriteLogLevel 2

SSLEngine on
SSLCertificateFile /usr/local/apache/conf/ssl.crt/server.crt
SSLCertificateKeyFile /usr/local/apache/conf/ssl.key/server.key

Thursday, May 06, 2010

ಸಹವಾಸ ದೋಷ

Submitted by hamsanandi on May 5, 2010 - 5:40am ಸಂಪದದಲ್ಲಿ

ಕಾದ ಕಬ್ಬಿಣದ ಮೇಲೆ ಬೀಳಲು ನೀರಹನಿ ಹೆಸರಿಲ್ಲದಂತಳಿವುದು
ಕಮಲದೆಲೆಯ ಮೇಲೆ ಬೀಳಲದುವೇ ಮುತ್ತಿನ ಹೊಳಪು ತೋರುವುದು
ಸ್ವಾತಿಯಲಿ ಕಡಲ ಚಿಪ್ಪಿನಲಿ ಬಿದ್ದರೆ ಹನಿ ತಾನೆ ಮುತ್ತಾಗಿಬಿಡುವುದು
ಮೇಲು-ನಡು-ಕೀಳೆಂಬ ಹಲವು ದೆಸೆಗಳನು ಒಡನಾಟವೇ ತರುವುದು!

ಸಂಸ್ಕೃತ ಮೂಲ:


ಸಂತಪ್ತಾಯಸಿ ಸಂಸ್ಥಿತಸ್ಯ ಪಯಸೋ ನಾಮಾಪಿ ನ ಜ್ಞಾಯತೇ
ಮುಕ್ತಾಕಾರತಯಾ ತದೇವ ನಲಿನೀಪತ್ರಸ್ಥಿತಂ ರಾಜತೇ |
ಸ್ವಾತ್ಯಾಂ ಸಾಗರ ಶುಕ್ತಿಮಧ್ಯಪತಿತಂ ಸಮ್ಮೌಕ್ತಿಕಂ ಜ್ಞಾಯತೇ
ಪ್ರಾಯೇಣೋತ್ತಮಮಧ್ಯಮಾಧಮದಶಾ ಸಂಸರ್ಗತೋ ಜಾಯತೇ ||

ಸವಿತೃ ಅವರ ಅನುವಾದ

ಕಾದ ಕಾವಲಿಯಲಿ ಹೇಳ ಹೆಸರಿಲ್ಲದಂತಳಿಪುದು
ಕಮಲದೆಲೆಯಲದುವೆ ಸ್ವಯಂ ರಾಜಿಪುದು
ಚಿಪ್ಪೋಳಗಿಳಿದ ಸ್ವಾತಿಹನಿ ಮುತ್ತಪ್ಪುದು

ಅತಿ ಮಿತಿಗಳೆಂಬ ಗತಿಗಳನು ಗೆಳೆತನವೆ ತರುವುದು

ನನ್ನದು

ಕಾದ ಕಬ್ಬಿಣದ ಮೇಲೆ
ಹೆಸರಿಲ್ಲದೆ ಮರೆಯಾಗುವ ಲೀಲೆ.
ಬಿದ್ದರದು ಕಮಲೆದೆಲೆ ಮೇಲೆ
ಹೊಳೆಯುವುದಲ್ಲಿ ಮುತ್ತಿನ ಮಾಲೆ.
ಸ್ವಾತಿ ಮಳೆಯ ನೀರಹನಿಯು
ತಾನೇ ಮುತ್ತಾಗುವುದು ಕಪ್ಪೆಚಿಪ್ಪಿನಲೆ
ಅಧಮ,ಮಧ್ಯಮನೋ ಮೇಣ್
ಉತ್ತಮನೋ , ಸಖರೊಡನಾಟವದೇ
ನಮ್ಮ ಸ್ಥಿತಿಗತಿಗೆ ಕಾರಣವು ತಾನೆ.